US Open 2011
Preview of top 8 seeds:
1. Novak Djokovic - a shoulder injury forced him to withdraw from the Cincinnati Masters final against Andy Murray but many believe Murray simply outplayed him in the first set and Novak wanted to rest his body for the US Open. I, on the other hand, believe he there's more to that "injury" then meets the eye and he could possibly be out early in week 2 to a certain Swiss or a certain Czech...
2. Rafael Nadal - its simple, since his defeat to Novak in THAT Wimbledon final, Rafa hasn't been playing at his best. Losing early in the Roger's Cup to Dodig and then getting outplayed by Mardy Fish in Cincinnati has raised a cloud of doubt over 1. Nadal's fitness levels and 2. Nadal's mind. Could Rafa be hiding an injury? Unlikely. I believe the 5 straight loses to Djokovic and the lose of his number 1 crown to the Serb has damaged Nadal mentally. For a long time, Nadal was always the number 2 guy behind Federer and that motivated him to push through and grand slam his way to the number 1 spot. Now that a guy who was always the number 3 guy has leap-frogged both Federer and Nadal, I think Rafa is simply frustrated that he isn't able to build his legacy more easily as Roger did, as Sampras, Connors, McEnroe and Borg did.
3. Roger Federer - No title since January. Some would say that's not an issue. Sadly it is when you're Roger Federer. The 16 time grand slam winner was outplayed in Australia by Novak, then outplayed in the French Open final by Nadal before getting "rope-a-doped" by the Muhammed Ali of tennis, Tsonga in the quarters of Wimbledon. A lot has to go right for Federer to win his first slam since Australia 2010 (mainly, Novak and Rafa need to lose early!). Federer has a "mediocre" draw which I am sure he will get through but from round 4 it gets tough and Roger needs to play 150% if he wants to reach the final alone. Winning in the final is going to take even more then that.
4. Andy Murray - Early exit in Canada had people questioning his form. He answered those questions by being the second man, after Roger, to beat Novak this year, in the Cincinnati final. Murray has played some great tennis this year but if you look into it deeper there is little hope. Murray always has a solid Aussie Open before going on a Feb-May slump. He then has a solid grass court season before playing his best tennis at the season ending hard court tournaments. Sadly, I just don't see Andy beating atleast 2 of the top 3 to win the US Open. With a possible semi final matchup against Nadal, Murray has a lot of work to do these next 2 weeks.
5. David Ferrer - his best performance was a semi final appearance in 2007, David Ferrer may be the hardest worker in tennis but sadly, his talent is limited. He is good enough to beat top players but he always has a 5 setter too early into a grand slam event and he just runs out of fuel. If the tournament was 7 days long, he could have won 2-3 slams by now. Sadly, slams aren't that easy.
6. Robin Soderling - form = out the window for Robin. From being ranked number 4 in the world he has slipped down to 6th and it could get worse. In this year's 3 grand slam events passed, Robin has made it to one quarter final, one 4th round and one 3rd round. A recent wrist injury has been the possible blame for poor performances but I think Robin is just having a poor season in general. Everyone has it. Federer in 2010, Nadal in 2009. Soderling will be back in 2012. 2011 is just not his year.
7. Gael Monfils - entertaining, yes, but grand slam winner, no. He will play fun tennis all the way to his grave but, its just simple, there are atleast 5 better players then him and that always limits you to a quarter final or a semi. Monfils has the potential to upset a Novak or a Rafa but he has to be playing 150% and they have to be playing 70-80%. But still, his tennis will please the crowds.
8. Mardy Fish - the dark horse. Since emerging as the new number 1 American tennis player, Mardy has been on fire. Losing to Djokovic in the Rogers Cup final and beating Nadal in Cincy has boosted his ranking from around 15th to 8th but, most importantly, the American public has fallen in love with him. Americans dream of a US champ at Flushing Meadows. The days of Andy Roddick are over and America is hoping for Fish to take over and challenge.
Noteable others: Tsonga, Berdych, Del Potro and Roddick.
This year's US Open is without a doubt the most "open" Open in a while. Yes, the top 3 are well ahead of the players ranked 4th to 8th but somehow it seems as though the lower seeds are beginning to figure out how to beat the top 3 (after losing to someone 10 times, I'm pretty sure you're bound to figure out a solid winning strategy). The gap is decreasing (only slightly though...) and with possible injuries and form being an issue, we could see a new slam champion.
Predictions:
Quarters:
[1] Djokovic versus [9] Berdych
[3] Federer versus [8] Fish
[4] Murray versus [18] Del Potro
[2] Nadal versus [21] Roddick
Semis:
[1] Djokovic versus [3] Federer
[18] Del Potro versus [2] Nadal
Final:
[1] Djokovic versus [18] Del Potro
Winner:
[1] Djokovic
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